Although Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) expanded its diabetes portfolio in May with the approval of Mounjaro (tirzepatide), rival Novo Nordisk (NVO) is seen as maintaining its lead in the type 2 diabetes (T2D) therapy market, according to GlobalData.
In a new report, GlobalData said that Novo’s (NVO) glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) franchise — including Rybelsus (oral semaglutide), Victoza/Saxenda (liraglutide), and Ozempic/Wegovy (semaglutide) — has had a strong year as sales are up 44% (assuming constant exchange rates) across the first three quarters of 2022.
Overall GLP-1 sales for Novo (NVO) in the first nine months were ~DKK 59B (~$8.2B), led by Ozempic with ~DKK 42.8B (~$6B).
Lilly’s (LLY) diabetes portfolio is dominated by Trulicity (duraglutide), a once-weekly injection, that brought in $1.85B in sales in Q3 2022, a 16% increase from the year-ago period. Its next best-selling diabetes med, Jardiance (empagliflozin), had Q3 sales of ~$543M, a 47% year-over-year increase.
Mounjaro, the first-ever diabetes medication that activates GLP-1 and glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) receptors, saw Q3 sales of $187M.
Mounjaro is likely to become a blockbuster for Lilly (LLY) not necessarily as a diabetes drug, but as a weight loss treatment, even though it is not yet approved in that indication. In a head-to-head trial against Wegovy — which is approved for weight loss — Mounjaro bested it in terms of A1C and weight reductions.
“Although Lilly (LLY) has launched Mounjaro in the past year and has a triple agonist, retatrutide, a GLP-1RA/GIP/glucagon receptor (GR) entering Phase III of development, Novo Nordisk (NVO) remains likely to maintain a significant share of the GLP-1 market,” noted GlobalData pharma analyst Akash Patel. “However, Lilly (LLY) will steal a large market share from semaglutide and potentially become the dominant GLP-1RA provider.”
Patel added that since the incidence of T2D is increasing around the world, there is room for both companies to increase market share.
Globally, the diabetes therapeutics market is expected to rise from ~$58.5B in 2021 to $91.7B by 2028, according to The Insight Partners. That’s a CAGR of 6.8%.
Despite Novo’s (NVO) impressive growth, Seeking Alpha contributor Daniel Schonberger sees the company’s shares as pricey and rates the stock a hold.