If current increasing trends continue, the number of young people with type 2 diabetes could grow to more than 520,000 by 2060.
As obesity rates have increased in recent years, especially among children, diabetes is also seeing an upward trend, according to a recent study.
Diabetes in young people is set to increase by up to 700% over the next four decades, the study, published in Diabetes Care, found.
That striking number prompted the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to issue a statement on the matter last week, noting that the new research “should serve as a wake-up call for all of us.”
“The COVID-19 pandemic underscored how critically important it is to address chronic diseases like diabetes,” Debra Houry, the CDC’s acting principal deputy director, said in a statement. “This study further highlights the importance of continuing efforts to prevent and manage chronic diseases, not only for our current population but also for generations to come.”
The study examined data between 2002 and 2017 from the CDC-funded SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study. It estimated that the number of young people under the age of 20 with type 2 diabetes could grow from 28,000 in 2017 to 220,000 in 2060 if the current increasing trends continue.
Assuming those recent rising trends continue, the researchers also found that the increase in type 1 diabetes would be 65%, compared to a 673% rise in type 2 diabetes. In total, more than 520,000 young people under the age of 20 could have diabetes by 2060, compared to 213,000 in 2017.
Unsurprisingly, that growing prevalence of type 2 diabetes was expected to be higher among Black, Hispanic/Latino, Asian, Pacific Islander and Native American young people, the study said.
“These numbers are alarming,” Christopher Holliday, director of the CDC’s division of diabetes translation, noted in a statement. “This study’s startling projections of type 2 diabetes increases show why it is crucial to advance health equity and reduce the widespread disparities that already take a toll on people’s health.”
Data from the CDC shows that obesity rates have been steadily climbing as well, rising from 30.5% in the period of 1999 to 2000 up to 41.9% in the period of 2017 to 2020.
During the period of 2017 to 2020, the prevalence of obesity among young people aged two to 19 was nearly 20%. Those percentages were higher among Latino/Hispanic children at 26.2% and 24.8% among non-Hispanic Black children.
The latest report comes as the growing need for diabetes and obesity treatments has led to shortages of certain diabetes drugs, including Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro and Trulicity.
Ozempic, which is currently approved by the Food and Drug Administration to treat type 2 diabetes, has been prescribed off-label for weight loss — which has exacerbated the shortage. While such new drugs are only approved for diabetes treatment, there’s been a growing hype around their potential as obesity or weight loss drugs — especially among celebrities and TikTokers.
In coming years, it’s expected that the ‘diabesity’ epidemic will continue to be a growing focus in the pharma world, as rates of both diabetes and obesity rise.
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